Do the numbers lie? Let’s see what the odds are for the AVN Awards

With the XBIZ awards going on tonight and AVN awards being so close I wanted to remind you all about a post I made last year about the awards being rigged.

Now I’ve had MANY MANY MANY tell me that isn’t the case. And I’ve had MANY MANY MANY tell me it was. Who the heck really knows. All I care about is how fun the red carpet is. 😛

But I will say this, there are two in particular award categories that are a little out of the ordinary and that is the two most sought after categories, Best New Starlet and Female Performer of the Year.

Assuming all things were equal and that every agent has an equal likelihood of having a girl chosen each year, the probability of the same agent winning every year, 5 years in a row is like 1 in a million.

The first thing I did was make a list of everyone who won an AVN award in the two categories in question and made a list. I went back 5 years. There are roughly 16 LA agents right now. What are the odds that out of the 16 or so legit agents in the business, every single winner for the last 5 years comes from one single agent?

Now let’s come both awards for this category.

AVN Female Performer of the Year

  • 2016 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
  • 2013 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)

AVN Best New Starlet

  • 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
  • 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
  • 2014 – Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
  • 2013 – Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
  • 2012 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)

Again the odds of this happening are huge. I mean come on …. out of 16 agents, one wins every single time for 5 years in a row and 4 out of 5 times in the other category?

I’m horrible at math but even common sense will tell you that the odds that the same agent has the winner porn star every year in a row for 5 years running is high. Lucky for me I found a guy from Ireland who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds.

Here is what he had to say …

Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.

Those are some crazy odds that a Spiegler girl would win 5 years in a row …. 1 in a million chance and yet it happened! Can you believe it?

If you want to see all the math (it gets long and complicated) you can click here to read the original article from last year.

I’m just curious how this will play out this year.



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