In February (when I was working on another site) I did an article about agents and awards. I noticed that one agent more than any other were winning awards. So I hired a guy who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds of that happening.
Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.
Actually let’s start over from the beginning because it’s a good story.
For years people have been saying the AVN awards are rigged. Are they? I don’t know. But I came across some damning evidence that makes you really wonder, if not the entire AVN awards, maybe there is something to the rumors at least in two of the categories.
I love statistics. So I decided to let the math speak for itself.
The first thing I did was make a list of everyone who won an AVN award in the two categories in question and made a list. I went back 5 years. Then I decided to throw in the same data for the XBIZ awards. I mean if it happens with one awards, why not see about the other, right? Let me show you what I mean …
AVN Female Performer of the Year
- 2016 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
- 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
- 2013 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)
There are roughly 16 LA licensed agents right now. What are the odds that out of the 16 or so legit agents in the business, every single winner for the last 5 years comes from one single agent?
Now let’s come both awards for this category.
AVN Female Performer of the Year
- 2016 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
- 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
- 2013 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)
XBIZ Female Performer of the Year
- 2016 – Dani Daniels (OC Modeling)
- 2015 – Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
- 2013 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Asa Akira (Spiegler)
See a pattern yet?
The odds for something like that occurring 5 years in a row have to be astronomical, right? So I thought well it could just be a crazy coincidence and to find out, I decided to add in another category – the other most important performer category – best new starlet.
AVN Best New Starlet
- 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
- 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
- 2013 – Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
In this important performer category, Spiegler girls won 4 out of 5 years. Again the odds of this happening are huge. I mean come on …. out of 16 agents, one wins every single time for 5 years in a row and 4 out of 5 times in the other category?
Something just seems off there, no? So let’s take a look over at XBIZ. These are the winners of the XBIZ Awards for the last 5 years. Same pattern emerges …
AVN Best New Starlet
- 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
- 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
- 2013 – Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
XBIZ Best New Starlet
- 2016 – Abella Danger (Spiegler)
- 2015 – Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
- 2014 – Christy Mack (101 Modeling)
- 2013 – Riley Reid (Spiegler)
- 2012 – Jessie Andrews (Spiegler)
Awards season is my absolute favorite time of the year. Besides the obvious marketing advantage to award nominations there is also the fun of getting ready for the shows and getting to see what everyone is wearing. Red carpet is just absolutely the best.
So again I wanted to know what the odds where of this happening on it’s own.
I’m horrible at math but even common sense will tell you that the odds that the same agent has the winner porn star every year in a row for 5 years running is high. Lucky for me I found a guy from Ireland who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds.
Here is what he had to say …
Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.
Those are some crazy odds that a Spiegler girl would win 5 years in a row …. 1 in a million chance and yet it happened! Can you believe it?
- LA Direct Models (as of today) has 53 female performers on their roster.
- Spiegler has 31 female performers on their roster.
- OC Modeling has has 52 female performers on their roster.
- ATMLA has 45 female performers on their roster.
In all that works out to be 181 total active female performers.
Now out of those 181 female performers. Who are the most popular? To determine this we turn to our friend Google. Every time a fan Google’s their favorite porn star’s name, Google records that search. The more “searches” a particular porn star has, the more famous she is.
They record the same data for all celebs. That’s why at the beginning of each year you see those most popular celeb lists. Anyway back to porn stars … I ran a report today at Google. So keep in mind this data is valid as of July 14, 2016.
Out of the top 4 agencies (LA Direct Models, OC Modeling, ATMLA and Spiegler Girls) who has the most famous performers?
LA Direct Models – BY FAR. There wasn’t even a competition. Let’s look at the top 10 and you’ll see why.
- Alexis Texas (LA Direct) 2,740,000 searches per month
- Asa Akira (Spiegler) 1,220,000 searches per month
- Tori Black (LA Direct) 1 million searches per month
- Dani Daniels (OC Modeling) 823k searches per month
- Dillion Harper (LA Direct) 823k searches a month
- Mia Malkova (LA Direct) 823k searches a month
- Riley Reid (Spiegler) 823k searches a month
- Julia Ann (ATMLA) 550k searches a month
- Peta Jensen (OC Modeling) 550k searches a month
- Valentina Nappi (Spiegler) 550k searches a month
42% of the best talent belong with LA Direct
24% of the best talent belong with Spiegler
22% of the best talent belong with OC Modeling
12% of the best talent belong with ATMLA
- The girls at LA Direct Models get a total of 9,074,930 searches per month.
- The girls with Spiegler get 5,072,990 searches per month.
- The girls with OC Modeling get 4,674,090 searches per month.
- The girls with ATMLA get 2,624,590 searches per month.
| Alexis Texas | LA Direct | 2,740,000 |
| Asa Akira | Spiegler | 1,220,000 |
| Tori Black | LA Direct | 1,000,000 |
| Dani Daniels | OC Modeling | 823,000 |
| Dillion Harper | LA Direct | 823,000 |
| Mia Malkova | LA Direct | 823,000 |
| Riley Reid | Spiegler | 823,000 |
| Julia Ann | ATMLA | 550,000 |
| Peta Jensen | OC Modeling | 550,000 |
| Valentina Nappi | Spiegler | 550,000 |
| Jynx Maze | LA Direct | 450,000 |
| Lexi Belle | LA Direct | 450,000 |
| Abella Danger | Spiegler | 301,000 |
| Ava Taylor | LA Direct | 301,000 |
| Adriana Chechik | LA Direct | 246,000 |
| Holly Michaels | OC Modeling | 246,000 |
| India Summer | ATMLA | 246,000 |
| Megan Rain | LA Direct | 246,000 |
| Romi Rain | OC Modeling | 246,000 |
| Skin Diamond | Spiegler | 246,000 |
| Alura Jenson | OC Modeling | 201,000 |
| Brooklyn Chase | OC Modeling | 201,000 |
| Carter Cruise | Spiegler | 201,000 |
| Chanel Preston | Spiegler | 201,000 |
| Elsa Jean | ATMLA | 201,000 |
| Summer Brielle | OC Modeling | 201,000 |
| AJ Applegate | Spiegler | 165,000 |
| Anikka Albrite | Spiegler | 165,000 |
| Brett Rossi | OC Modeling | 165,000 |
| Bridgette B | ATMLA | 165,000 |
| Jessa Rhodes | OC Modeling | 165,000 |
| Katrina Jade | OC Modeling | 165,000 |
| Kayla Kayden | LA Direct | 165,000 |
| Naomi Woods | LA Direct | 165,000 |
| Riley Steele | LA Direct | 165,000 |
| Alix Lynx | OC Modeling | 135,000 |
| Anna Bell Peaks | OC Modeling | 135,000 |
| Karla Kush | OC Modeling | 135,000 |
| Luna Star | Spiegler | 135,000 |
| Natalia Starr | LA Direct | 135,000 |
| Natasha Nice | LA Direct | 135,000 |
| Nina Elle | ATMLA | 135,000 |
| Sophia Grace | ATMLA | 135,000 |
| Tasha Reign | LA Direct | 135,000 |
| Anya Ivy | OC Modeling | 110,000 |
| Briana Banks | OC Modeling | 110,000 |
| Cherie Deville | OC Modeling | 110,000 |
| Destiny Dixon | ATMLA | 110,000 |
| Karlee Grey | ATMLA | 110,000 |
| Kristina Rose | Spiegler | 110,000 |
| Mercedes Carrera | ATMLA | 110,000 |
| Penny Pax | Spiegler | 110,000 |
| Alexis Adams | ATMLA | 90,500 |
| Brooke Wylde | OC Modeling | 90,500 |
| Casey Calvert | Spiegler | 90,500 |
| Chloe Amour | LA Direct | 90,500 |
| Dani Jensen | LA Direct | 90,500 |
| Jessie Andrews | Spiegler | 90,500 |
| Mia Li | ATMLA | 90,500 |
| Sara Luvv | ATMLA | 90,500 |
| Shay Laren | LA Direct | 90,500 |
| Shyla Jennings | OC Modeling | 90,500 |
| Veruca James | Spiegler | 90,500 |
| Yurizan Beltran | LA Direct | 90,500 |
| Dana DeArmond | Spiegler | 74,000 |
| Elle Alexandra | OC Modeling | 74,000 |
| Joseline Kelly | ATMLA | 74,000 |
| Karlie Montana | ATMLA | 74,000 |
| Shawna Lenee | LA Direct | 74,000 |
| August Taylor | ATMLA | 60,500 |
| Courtney Taylor | OC Modeling | 60,500 |
| Dana Vespoli | Spiegler | 60,500 |
| Marica Hase | Spiegler | 60,500 |
| Morgan Lee | LA Direct | 60,500 |
| Syren De Mer | OC Modeling | 60,500 |
| Abby Lee Brazil | LA Direct | 49,500 |
| Alexis Love | LA Direct | 49,500 |
| Alice March | ATMLA | 49,500 |
| Christie Stevens | OC Modeling | 49,500 |
| Lily LaBeau | Spiegler | 49,500 |
| Maddy O’Reilly | Spiegler | 49,500 |
| Melissa Moore | Spiegler | 49,500 |
| Michelle Maylene | LA Direct | 49,500 |
| Alyssa Lynn | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Charlotte Stokely | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Cindy Starfall | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Jaclyn Taylor | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Jenna Sativa | Spiegler | 40,500 |
| Kimberly Brix | LA Direct | 40,500 |
| Lana Rhoades | Spiegler | 40,500 |
| Mia Lelani | LA Direct | 40,500 |
| Olivia Austin | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Yhivi | Spiegler | 40,500 |
| Zoey Monroe | OC Modeling | 40,500 |
| Aaliyah Love | ATMLA | 33,100 |
| Adria Rae | LA Direct | 33,100 |
| Alexis Monroe | LA Direct | 33,100 |
| JoJo Kiss | OC Modeling | 33,100 |
| Karina White | OC Modeling | 33,100 |
| Layla Sin | OC Modeling | 33,100 |
| Layton Benton | LA Direct | 33,100 |
| Madelyn Monroe | ATMLA | 33,100 |
| Reena Sky | LA Direct | 33,100 |
| Samia Duarte | ATMLA | 33,100 |
| Sarah Jessie | OC Modeling | 33,100 |
| Aiden Starr | Spiegler | 27,100 |
| Jayden Lee | OC Modeling | 27,100 |
| Kendall Kayden | LA Direct | 27,100 |
| Leya Falcon | OC Modeling | 27,100 |
| McKenzie Lee | ATMLA | 27,100 |
| Tia Cyrus | LA Direct | 27,100 |
| Brooke Logan | LA Direct | 22,200 |
| Carmen Callaway | ATMLA | 22,200 |
| Dahlia Sky | Spiegler | 22,200 |
| Jayme Langford | ATMLA | 22,200 |
| Jenna J Ross | ATMLA | 22,200 |
| Trinity St. Clair | OC Modeling | 22,200 |
| Aspen Ora | ATMLA | 18,100 |
| Bella Rose | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Cristi Ann | OC Modeling | 18,100 |
| Heather Vahn | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Hope Howell | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Kimberly Kendall | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Kinsley Eden | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Lea Lexis | Spiegler | 18,100 |
| Michelle Taylor | LA Direct | 18,100 |
| Aleksa Nicole | ATMLA | 14,800 |
| Anna De Ville | Spiegler | 14,800 |
| Jay Taylor | ATMLA | 14,800 |
| Jessica Ryan | ATMLA | 14,800 |
| Rachael Madori | Spiegler | 14,800 |
| Shay Evans | LA Direct | 14,800 |
| angel Smalls | ATMLA | 12,100 |
| Goldie Rush | OC Modeling | 12,100 |
| Jenna Ashley | ATMLA | 12,100 |
| Kira Noir | Spiegler | 12,100 |
| Kylie Nicole | OC Modeling | 12,100 |
| Yasmine De Leon | OC Modeling | 12,100 |
| Iris Rose | ATMLA | 9,900 |
| Kharlie Stone | LA Direct | 9,900 |
| Amber Ivy | ATMLA | 8,100 |
| Dallas Black | OC Modeling | 8,100 |
| Sara Vandella | ATMLA | 8,100 |
| Sadie Blair | LA Direct | 6,600 |
| Pepper XO | LA Direct | 5,400 |
| Cleo Vixen | ATMLA | 4,400 |
| Lacie James | OC Modeling | 4,400 |
| Lilly Banks | OC Modeling | 4,400 |
| Niki Snow | OC Modeling | 4,400 |
| Nina Dolci | OC Modeling | 4,400 |
| Ryan Riesling | OC Modeling | 4,400 |
| Sandy Fantasy | LA Direct | 4,400 |
| Zoey Laine | ATMLA | 4,400 |
| Alana Luv | OC Modeling | 3,600 |
| Alison Rey | ATMLA | 3,600 |
| Assh Lee | OC Modeling | 3,600 |
| Dixie Comet | ATMLA | 3,600 |
| Kiera Rose | ATMLA | 3,600 |
| Leilani Gold | LA Direct | 3,600 |
| Raquel Roper | OC Modeling | 3,600 |
| Tegan Presley | LA Direct | 3,600 |
| Amy FAye | ATMLA | 2,900 |
| Sarah Banks | OC Modeling | 2,900 |
| Shavelle Love | LA Direct | 1,600 |
| Riley Reyes | ATMLA | 1,300 |
| Stevie Lix | ATMLA | 1,300 |
| Ally Tate | LA Direct | 1,000 |
| Stevie Foxx | ATMLA | 880 |
| Zelda Morrison | LA Direct | 720 |
| Lily Jordan | ATMLA | 480 |
| Portia Harlow | ATMLA | 480 |
| Savanna Styles | OC Modeling | 480 |
| Allora Ashlyn | LA Direct | 390 |
| Ara Alexander | Spiegler | 390 |
| Ashlee Mae | ATMLA | 320 |
| Jill Kassidy | LA Direct | 260 |
| Kelly Paige | LA Direct | 260 |
| Bre Blu | OC Modeling | 110 |
| Marily Moore | ATMLA | 30 |
| Kiyanna Marie | LA Direct | — |
| Peyton Coast | OC Modeling | — |
About The Author
For those of you asking about the math here is what he said ….
(1/16)^5 = 1/1048576 = 0.00000095367431640625….
or, as a percentage, is
100*(1/16)^5 = 100/1048576 = 0.000095367431640625….
or, in terms of odds, is
(1048576-1):1 = 1048575:1
Some people have gotten a little butt hurt over my post. They say it doesn’t happen, that award shows real or porn are not rigged. I wanted to share with you my response to that person to clear up any confusion.
__________________
I don’t know if you have heard of a little company called MTV and their annual “Teen Choice Awards”. It’s a very big deal to the younger crowd. They had a HUGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE scandal over the awards being rigged. Google it. It’s quite funny.
So yes, it happens everywhere — Mainstream and porn.
But is that really the point?
No. To me the most interesting part of the full post was the math. The probability and percentages. I mean who would have figured that LA Direct Models is sitting on top of 42% of the most popular active porn performers? I knew he had some hot girls on the site but that number was WAY higher than I would have thought, especially when you compare it to the other top 3 agents.
I’m not going to lie. I would have thought Derek’s day was over but after seeing his numbers, I was so dead wrong.
I personally LOVE the AVN awards and somewhat to a lesser extent the XBIZ awards. They are obviously great for marketing purposes but more than that, as a girl who doesn’t love the red carpet? I mean come on … totally the best part!
Yes there are some statistically anomalies in a few of the award categories, I don’t think anyone would deny that. But does it mean the show is rigged?
I really can’t even say that myself. I mean odd YES. But rigged? Ehhh, it’s really hard to know for sure.
That’s why I said, what do you think? You need to draw your own conclusions.
It’s all in good fun. I think the guys over at AVN by now know how much I actually love their show and have long been a HUGE supporter of it, especially the red carpet. Heck, I even helped Cezar Capone coordinate the red carpet show back in 2008.
The whole swarovski crystals on the mics … that was totally me!
So let’s stop getting so butt hurt over a silly little story.